The broad-based measure of Treasury bond volatility – MOVE – has broken higher, and, as BofAML’s MacNeil Curry notes, confirms a base and change in trend (to higher or more volatility). With the month of December traditionally a strong month for the MOVE Index and Treasury volatility in general, Curry warns there are two ways the volatility can move higher – either higher rates or lower equities.
Via BofAML,
We look for Treasury volatility to head higher to 81/87 and potentially beyond
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